Are Interest Rates Going Up and Down at the Same Time? COVID-19
Christine Buemann • April 7, 2020
If you’re paying more attention to the Canadian economy due to COVID-19, and it seems like you’re getting mixed messages; that mortgage interest rates are going both up and down at the same time, you’re not that far off. There are a lot of moving parts, and to find clarity, we need to make sure we’re comparing apples to apples, and oranges to oranges.
Let’s begin by acknowledging that not all interest rates are the same. The term “interest rates” can mean a lot of different things in news story headlines.
The Government “overnight rate” is different from the “qualifying rate”, which is different from the banks “prime rate”, which is different from “variable rates”, which is different from the “discount on a variable rate” which is different from “fixed rates”.
Here’s a list of the different types of mortgage rates, a quick summary of what they are, the direction they’re going, and how they impact you.
Target for the Overnight Rate.
Also known as the policy rate, this is the rate that the Bank of Canada (The Government) controls. When the Bank of Canada changes the Target for the Overnight Rate, this change affects other interest rates in the economy.
Typically there are only eight days in the year for the Bank of Canada to announce if they will change the rate. However, given the recent COVID-19, the Bank of Canada has made special announcements.
The overnight rate was set with a target of 1.75% for a long time before the pandemic.
March 4th 2020, the rate was lowered to 1.25%. March 16th 2020, the rate was lowered to 0.75% in an emergency rate cut. March 27th 2020, the rate was lowered to 0.25% in a second emergency rate cut.
The overnight rate now sits at 0.25% with April 15th 2020, as the next scheduled announcement date.
By cutting interest rates, the government hopes to stimulate economic growth. Lower financing costs encourages borrowing and investing, which is what our government believes will get us through this pandemic.
Qualifying Rate
Also known as the Benchmark Qualifying Rate or the five year qualifying posted rate, this is another rate set by the government. If you’re getting an insured mortgage, the government wants to make sure you will be able to afford your mortgage at the end of your term (in case interest rates go up). So they make you qualify for your mortgage at a higher rate than you will actually be paying.
The government has recently dropped the qualifying rate from 5.19% to 5.04%. This decrease, like the drop in the overnight rate, is meant to help stimulate the economy. The average Canadian will qualify to borrow an additional $10,000 with this drop.
Banks Prime Rate
The banks prime lending rate isn’t the same as the overnight rate; however, the banks prime lending rate is impacted by the overnight rate. Each bank sets its own prime lending rate. When the Bank of Canada moves the overnight rate, typically the prime rate at each bank will follow.
Because of the emergency rate cut on March 27th, banks lowered their prime lending rate to 2.45%. Some banks moved immediately, while some made the change effective April 1st, which means the savings will be seen on May 1st, but they all did lower their prime rates.
The prime lending rate is used by banks to determine rates on floating mortgage products (like the variable rate), lines of credit, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), and some credit cards.
If you currently have a variable rate mortgage or a HELOC, a lower prime rate means that you are now paying less interest on your existing mortgage, this is a good thing.
Variable Rate Mortgage
A variable rate mortgage is a mortgage that fluctuates with the prime lending rate. Typically, the mortgage rate will change with the prime lending rate and includes a “component” or “discount” to the prime rate +/- a specified amount, such as Prime - 0.45%. The lender sets this component to prime.
So, if you have a variable rate mortgage at Prime -0.45%, the rate you’d be paying today (with a prime rate of 2.45%) is 2%.
This is where it gets a little confusing because while the government is trying to stimulate the economy by lowering the overnight rate, banks have followed by lowering their prime rate, but at the same time have increased the component to prime - by the same amount of 0.5% or in some cases even more.
Although there are immediate savings for existing variable rate mortgage holders, anyone looking to get a new variable rate mortgage will do so at a higher rate than a few weeks ago.
Fixed Rate Mortgage
As its name suggests, a fixed rate mortgage is where your mortgage rate stays the same throughout your term. Your rate isn’t tied to the prime lending rate but rather is unmoved by outside factors. With all the uncertainty in the Canadian economy, lenders have actually been increasing rates for new fixed rate mortgages.
So while the government is doing all they can to keep rates low, why are banks increasing fixed rate mortgages?
Well, banks are in the business of making money, and given that over 2 million Canadians have applied for some kind of assistance to get through COVID-19, the fear is that mortgage delinquency will go up considerably as the coronavirus financially impacts people.
Banks are increasing fixed rates to protect themselves against economic uncertainty.
So what does this mean for you? Well, as everyone’s financial situation is different, it’s impossible to give blanket advice that applies to everyone. But here is some general advice.
Existing Variable Rate Holders
You’re doing well. The recent drop in the banks prime rate to 2.45% has lowered the amount of interest you are paying on your mortgage. You have a discount to prime for the remainder of your term that isn’t currently available in the market. Your mortgage rate is one of the lowest in Canadian history.
As the next announcement by the government will be April 15th 2020, there is a chance your rate could go even lower.
If at this time, you’re considering locking your variable rate into a fixed rate, that would significantly increase the amount of interest you are paying. As fixed rates have increased over the last weeks, this isn’t a good option right now.
The reason you went variable in the first place is the reason you should stay variable at this point. With all the economic uncertainty, the prime rate won’t be going up anytime soon.
Existing Fixed Rate Mortgage Holders
Your fixed rate is set lower than the fixed rates currently being offered. If you break your term now, you will incur a higher penalty. So unless you must make a move, it would probably be best just to stay the course.
Hopefully, fixed rates will go down when the economic uncertainty winds down, and rates will be in a good spot when your term comes up for renewal.
Are you looking for a new mortgage?
The most important thing for you going forward is flexibility. Variable rates are still historically low, and although fixed rate mortgages have gone up over the last weeks, there are still lots of great mortgage options available on the market.
The best place to start is to contact me directly so we can go over your financial situation and discuss the best plan for you to move ahead in these uncertain times.
So although it may appear that mortgage interest rates are going both up and down at the same time, understanding what is meant by “interest rates” is crucial. The government is lowering rates to stimulate the economy, while banks are trying to protect themselves against future losses by increasing rates while they can.
RECENT POSTS
Can You Get a Mortgage If You Have Collections on Your Credit Report? Short answer? Not easily. Long answer? It depends—and it’s more common (and fixable) than you might think. When it comes to applying for a mortgage, your credit report tells lenders a story. Collections—debts that have been passed to a collection agency because they weren’t paid on time—are big red flags in that story. Regardless of how or why they got there, open collections are going to hurt your chances of getting approved. Let’s break this down. What Exactly Is a Collection? A collection appears on your credit report when a bill goes unpaid for long enough that the lender decides to stop chasing you—and hires a collection agency to do it instead. It doesn’t matter whether it was an unpaid phone bill, a forgotten credit card, or a disputed fine: to a lender, it signals risk. And lenders don’t like risk. Why It Matters to Mortgage Lenders? Lenders use your credit report to gauge how trustworthy you are with borrowed money. If they see you haven’t paid a past debt, especially recently, it suggests you might do the same with a new mortgage—and that’s enough to get your application denied. Even small collections can cause problems. A $32 unpaid utility bill might seem insignificant to you, but to a lender, it’s a red flag waving loudly. But What If I Didn’t Know About the Collection? It happens all the time. You move provinces and miss a final utility charge. Your cell provider sends a bill to an old address. Or maybe the collection is showing in error—credit reports aren’t perfect, and mistakes do happen. Regardless of the reason, the responsibility to resolve it still falls on you. Even if it’s an honest oversight or an error, lenders will expect you to clear it up or prove it’s been paid. And What If I Chose Not to Pay It? Some people intentionally leave certain collections unpaid—maybe they disagree with a charge, or feel a fine is unfair. Here are a few common “moral stand” collections: Disputed phone bills COVID-related fines Traffic tickets Unpaid spousal or child support While you might feel justified, lenders don’t take sides. They’re not interested in why a collection exists—only that it hasn’t been dealt with. And if it’s still active, that could be enough to derail your mortgage application. How Can You Find Out What’s On Your Report? Easy. You can check it yourself through services like Equifax or TransUnion, or you can work with a mortgage advisor to go through a full pre-approval. A pre-approval will quickly uncover any credit issues, including collections—giving you a chance to fix them before you apply for a mortgage. What To Do If You Have Collections Verify: Make sure the collection is accurate. Pay or Dispute: Settle the debt or begin a dispute process if it’s an error. Get Proof: Even if your credit report hasn’t updated yet, documentation showing the debt is paid can be enough for some lenders. Work With a Pro: A mortgage advisor can help you build a strategy and connect you with lenders who offer flexible solutions. Collections are common, but they can absolutely block your path to mortgage financing. Whether you knew about them or not, the best approach is to take action early. If you’d like to find out where you stand—or need help navigating your credit report—I’d be happy to help. Let’s make sure your next mortgage application has the best possible chance of approval.
Thinking About Selling Your Home? Start With These 3 Key Questions Selling your home is a major move—emotionally, financially, and logistically. Whether you're upsizing, downsizing, relocating, or just ready for a change, there are a few essential questions you should have answers to before you list that "For Sale" sign. 1. How Will I Get My Home Sale-Ready? Before your property hits the market, you’ll want to make sure it puts its best foot forward. That starts with understanding its current market value—and ends with a plan to maximize its appeal. A real estate professional can walk you through what similar homes in your area have sold for and help tailor a prep plan that aligns with current market conditions. Here are some things you might want to consider: Decluttering and removing personal items Minor touch-ups or repairs Fresh paint inside (and maybe outside too) Updated lighting or fixtures Professional staging Landscaping or exterior cleanup High-quality photos and possibly a virtual tour These aren’t must-dos, but smart investments here can often translate to a higher sale price and faster sale. 2. What Will It Actually Cost to Sell? It’s easy to look at the selling price and subtract your mortgage balance—but the real math is more nuanced. Here's a breakdown of the typical costs involved in selling a home: Real estate agent commissions (plus GST/HST) Legal fees Mortgage discharge fees (and possibly a penalty) Utility and property tax adjustments Moving expenses and/or storage costs That mortgage penalty can be especially tricky—it can sometimes be thousands of dollars, depending on your lender and how much time is left in your term. Not sure what it might cost you? I can help you estimate it. 3. What’s My Plan After the Sale? Knowing your next step is just as important as selling your current home. If you're buying again, don’t assume you’ll automatically qualify for a new mortgage just because you’ve had one before. Lending rules change, and so might your financial situation. Before you sell, talk to a mortgage professional to find out what you’re pre-approved for and what options are available. If you're planning to rent or relocate temporarily, think about timelines, storage, and transition costs. Clarity and preparation go a long way. The best way to reduce stress and make confident decisions is to work with professionals you trust—and ask all the questions you need. If you’re thinking about selling and want help mapping out your next steps, I’d be happy to chat anytime. Let’s make a smart plan, together.
If you need a mortgage, working with an independent mortgage professional will save you money and provide you with better options than dealing with a single financial institution. And if that is the only sentence you read in this entire article, you already know all you need to know. However, if you’d like to dig a little deeper, here are some reasons that outline why working with an independent mortgage professional is in your best interest. The best mortgage is the one that costs you the least over the long term. An independent mortgage professional can help you achieve this. Mortgages aren’t created equally. Oftentimes slick marketing leads us to believe the lowest “sticker price” is the best value. So when it comes to mortgage financing, you might assume the mortgage with the lowest rate is the best option. This isn’t always the case. When considering a mortgage, your goal should be to find the mortgage that will cost you the least amount of money over the total length of the mortgage. There are many factors to consider, such as your specific financial situation, the rate, initial term length, fixed or variable rate structure, amortization, and the penalties incurred should you need to break your mortgage early; the fine print matters. An independent mortgage professional can walk through all these factors with you and will help you find the mortgage that best suits your needs. Sometimes taking a mortgage with a slightly higher rate can make sense if it gives you flexibility down the line or helps you avoid huge payout penalties. Working the numbers with an independent mortgage professional will save you money in the long run instead of just going with what a single lender is offering. Save time by letting an independent mortgage professional find the best mortgage product for you. Let's face it, getting a mortgage can be challenging enough on its own. Everyone’s financial situation is a little different and making sense of lender guidelines is a full-time job in itself. So instead of dealing with multiple lending institutions on your own, when you work with an independent mortgage professional, you submit a single mortgage application that is compared to the lending guidelines of various mortgage lenders. This will save you time as you don’t have to go from bank to bank to ensure you’re getting the best mortgage. Simply put, an independent mortgage professional works for you and has your best interest in mind, while a bank specialist works for the bank and has the bank's best interest in mind. It’s no secret that Canadian banks make a lot of money. It seems every quarter they turn billions of dollars in profit (despite the economic environment). They do this at the expense of their customers by charging as much interest as they can and structuring mortgages to their benefit. It’s all about the alignment of interest. Bank employees work for the bank; the bank pays them to make money for the bank. In contrast, independent mortgage professionals are provincially licensed to work for their clients and are paid a standardized placement or finder’s fee for matching borrowers with lenders. When you work with a single bank, you only have access to the products of that bank. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, you have access to all of the lenders that mortgage professionals have relationships with and all their products. Working with an independent mortgage professional will save you money, time, and provide you with better mortgage options. Plus, you have the added benefit of working with a licensed professional looking out for your best interest, providing you with the best possible advice. If you’d like to know more or to discuss mortgage financing, please connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you.
